NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)

Model last actuals: 2028Q3 NVDA US Equity Model.xlsx Alerts start: May 30, 2028
EBITDA over time
Current View Baseline Original Values
Actuals
2027Q4
Current View1,563.88
Baseline Projection1,502.36
Original Values1,618.93
Assumptions
Variable2024Q32026Q4
GB300 NVL 72 Revenue1,342.26 1,375.32
H100 Hopper GPU Revenue18,144.24 13,631.72
Compute Console Revenue36.4435.72

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Scenario Analysis

Import tariff step increase 3 runs
Context

Tariffs rise 12% on imported components from the start of 2026Q4 and roughly half of the increase is passed through to customers within two quarters.

RUN #1
Base

Tariffs rise 12% on imported components from the start of 2026Q4 and roughly half of the increase is passed…

Base scenario
RUN #2
Downside

The same tariff step, but no pass-through: the full cost increase is absorbed in margin, and volumes soften as…

Lower volumes, margin pressure
RUN #3
Upside

Full pass-through inside one quarter plus a renegotiated supplier contract that recovers part of the cost step from 2027.

Higher pricing, partial cost recovery
Overall portfolio change · 2027E EBITDA

Key takeaways from your portfolio analysis.

Portfolio EBITDA Impact0.0%from 89,012 EBITDA
Overall portfolio change · 2027E EBITDA
Movers1 up · 5 down2 unambiguous
SignalNoisyrange is 247.8% of the move
Concentration49.7%from HLSM
Peaks2027Q3evenly spread
Impact & Uncertaintyi

Estimated impact on 2027E EBITDA with 68% confidence interval

EBITDA
CompanyImpact
← Larger negative impactLarger positive impact →
HLSM 0.0%
NWRB 0.0%
SLCE 0.0%
CSTM 0.0%
MRLW 0.0%
ARGN 0.0%
-21%-14%-7%0%7%
Estimated impact68% confidence interval

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Scenario Assistant
EBITDA
-2.6%Portfolio Impact 1 up · 5 downMovers NoisySignal 49.7%Concentration 2027Q3Peaks
Impact & Uncertainty
HLSM
0.0%
NWRB
0.0%
SLCE
0.0%
CSTM
0.0%
MRLW
0.0%
ARGN
0.0%
-21%-14%-7%0%7%
Estimated impact68% confidence interval
Import tariff step increase 3 runs
Context

Tariffs rise 12% on imported components from the start of 2026Q4 and roughly half of the increase is passed through to customers within two quarters.

RUN #1
Base

Tariffs rise 12% on imported components from the start of 2026Q4 and roughly half of the increase is passed through to customers…

RUN #2
Downside

The same tariff step, but no pass-through: the full cost increase is absorbed in margin, and volumes soften as competitors hold…

RUN #3
Upside

Full pass-through inside one quarter plus a renegotiated supplier contract that recovers part of the cost step from 2027.

Company: HLSM · EBITDA Quarters ⌄
-9.4%Peak 100%Persistence 9 of 14Periods Moved 22.4%Range balancedSkew
Actuals
2025Q32026Q32027Q32028Q4
PeriodImplied impact
2025Q3actual
2025Q4actual
2026Q1actual
2026Q2actual
2026Q3actual
2026Q4-3.4%
2027Q1-6.2%
PeriodImplied impact
2027Q2-8.3%
2027Q3-9.4%
2027Q4-9.2%
2028Q1-8.7%
2028Q2-8.3%
2028Q3-8.0%
2028Q4-7.7%
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Helion Semiconductor – HLSM
HLSM-Equity-MODEL-2026-09-09.xlsx
⊞ View Data ⌥ Tree View
Financial Statement Line ItemsKey Performance IndicatorsRevenue Drivers
FSLICurrent MappingCandidates
Revenue (Financials C12:CH12) Sales12,480
High (Financials D13:AH13) Total Revenue12,480
Medium (Summary C13:Q13) Revenue12,480
Low (Revenue Build AB416:BT416) Total Revenue12,480
High (Financials D13:AH13) Total Revenue12,480
Low (Cash Flow D42:P42) Revenue41,180
✎ Custom
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) (Financials C16:CH16) Cost of goods sold-5,118
High (Financials D23:AH23) Cost of goods sold-5,118
Operating Expenses (Financials C41:CH41) Total operating expenses-2,240
High (Financials D41:AH41) Total operating ex…-2,240
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HLSM – Helion Semiconductor
HLSM-Equity-MODEL-2026-09-09.xlsx
Fiscal Period
2025A
Root Node
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
Expand tree up to
Cost Of Goods Sold 2025 -17,760 Total Cost Of Goods Sold 2025
Total Cost Of Goods Sold 2025 (17,760) SUM(COGS 2025Q1…Q4)
COGS 2025Q1(4,180)Hardcoded
COGS 2025Q2(4,340)Hardcoded
COGS 2025Q3(4,520)Hardcoded
COGS 2025Q4(4,720)Hardcoded
Forecast Accuracy
Companies2
Models · Families8 · 2
Predictions240
Calibration5.0%
BiasPessimist
Bias by line item
Net Income
Revenue
Operating Expenses
EBITDA
COGS
Total Current Assets
Accuracy by horizon
Q+1Q+2Q+3Q+4Y+1
Income Statement4.44.85.75.05.2
Balance Sheet5.14.54.34.73.9
Other FSLI3.26.25.67.12.6
Consensus Comparison
CSTM – Castleton Materials Co. · Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
CSTM – Castleton Materials Co.
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
Quarterly
⬇ Download Data
603 2026-02-20 · CSTM_v6.6.xlsx 556 2026-01-23 · CSTM_v6.5.xlsx 552 2026-06-04 · CSTM_260604.xlsx
Revision DateConsensusModelDelta
2025-12-04 23:05-5,042-5,409-6.79%
2026-01-22 19:48-5,150-5,409-4.79%
2026-02-09 14:36-5,231-5,409-3.29%
Forecasting Performance
Assumption comparison across revisions
+ Add Metric
+ Add Company ⊡ Generate Single Metric Graphs Helion Semiconductor (HLSM) ✕
951001 2025-10-14 · HLSM_Model_2025Q3.xlsx 951002 2026-01-14 · HLSM_Model_2025Q4.xlsx 951016 2026-04-14 · HLSM_Model_2026Q1.xlsx 951017 2026-07-14 · HLSM_Model_2026Q2.xlsx
FSLIKPICustom
Revenue
Model RevisionsVA / 3rd Party
Last Actuals Period2025Q32025Q42026Q12026Q2
2025Q30.0%A-4.2%-8.1%-11.4%
2025Q40.0%A0.0%A-3.9%-6.8%
2026Q10.0%A0.0%A0.0%A-2.1%
Alerts
Sep 01, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
Trending Down
Storyline Unchanged
Positive or Amplified Storyline
46 alerts match these filters
SEP 6  |  SOLACE DEVICES INC  |  CONNECTED HARDWARE & VOICE ASSISTANT STRATEGY
Open Full Report →

Solace Devices Announces AI Hardware Upgrade and Expanded Chip Investment

NoveltyContains Distinct New Event(s)
Fundamental PerformanceSteady fundamentals
Narrative ImpactPositive or Amplified Storyline
RisksStable risk
Technological Innovations Product Launches Supply Chain Issues Strategic Initiatives
Read More ⌄ Map on Causal Graph Go to Forecast
SEP 5  |  NORTHFIELD ROBOTICS INC  |  INDUSTRIAL AUTOMATION SUPPLY CHAIN

Northfield Robotics Flags Delays in Automation Rollout

NoveltyRecurring Theme
Fundamental PerformanceWorsening fundamentals
Narrative ImpactTrending Down
RisksHeightened risk
SEP 5  |  CASTLETON MATERIALS CO  |  COST STRUCTURE AND MARGIN OUTLOOK

Castleton Materials Warns on Input Cost Pressure

NoveltyRecurring Theme
Fundamental PerformanceWorsening fundamentals
Narrative ImpactTrending Down
RisksHeightened risk
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Solace Devices Inc
Devices Segment Revenue
Segment Operating Income
Net Income
Hardware Gross Margin
SOLACE DEVICES INC  |  CONNECTED HARDWARE

Solace Devices Announces AI Hardware Upgrade and Expanded Chip Investment

NoveltyContains Distinct New Event(s)
Fundamental PerformanceSteady fundamentals
Narrative ImpactPositive or Amplified Storyline
RisksStable risk
Net AssessmentKey DebatesResearchAlert Summary
Direction: Mixed Horizon: 2026–2027Q1

These concurrent theses span Solace's reported capital spending, recurring device-attach revenue, and hardware cost base from calendar 2026 into 2027Q1 — each stated on its own reported line-item terms without netting.

Scenario Go To Scenario → Relevant subgraphs
Devices Segment Rev… International Segmen…
EBITDA over time
Quarterly
Current View Baseline Original Values
2027Q4
Current View1,563.88
Baseline Projection1,502.36
Original Values1,618.93
Alerts

No new alerts yet — watching coverage for events.

Sep 2  |  Freight and Logistics Costs Easing

Helion Semiconductor — inbound freight rates fall

Factual Summary

Spot rates on the transpacific lane fell for a fourth consecutive week…

Read more
Assumptions Impacted
Operating Expenses
Operating Expenses|2026Q4
0.0000
1134.67+
Current value
Original: 1134.67Baseline: 1155.09
Event Attribution
⌃ Freight rates easing+20.4240

Transpacific spot rates fell for a fourth week, trimming inbound logistics cost.

Custom Contribution+3.4000

Manual override entered by the analyst on this period.

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